WBD Acquisition Thread

When it comes to regulatory approval, I think Paramount would have higher chances of buying WBD, probably even with minimal or no restrictions.

However, I'm expecting massive cuts from all these counterbids. Not going to say that Netflix wouldn't do cuts, but I expect Paramount to do the most severe ones.
 
When it comes to regulatory approval, I think Paramount would have higher chances of buying WBD, probably even with minimal or no restrictions.
For Paramount, two major issues would be linear networks and two major studios.

Paramount+ and HBO Max aren't concern.

As for Netflix, HBO Max and Netflix would be major concern.

Sell HBO Max to Paramount, merge with Paramount+ would make sense, so Paramount and Netflix would have to negotiate with split the assets and Netflix likely to take WB studio and libraries. Other alternative is 50% Netflix and 50% Paramount own HBO Max, so it would enable HBO Max to get HBO libraries.

Right now, I have no idea about what M&A looks like and I'm very apprehensive of Ellison, so Paramount without Ellison wouldn't be problem. Sell CNN assets to other company who committed to respect the media independence, so it wouldn't make M&A as overly political.
 


So another bidding war starts.
 
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Is Netflix Boardroom that much dumb?
 
Is Netflix Boardroom that much dumb?
Netflix is conscious about Paramount's hostile takeover and employed the nasty tactics, so they rather to have slower pace to raise the bid instead of all out war with Paramount that could push Netflix to overpay on WBD deal.

It is basically wait and see for story to unfolding.

When time is right, Netflix would ready to bluntly outbid Paramount, so Ellison wouldn't able to afford to continue the fighting.
 
Aren’t we forgetting that Paramount still can’t raise their current bid?
 
Netflix is conscious about Paramount's hostile takeover and employed the nasty tactics, so they rather to have slower pace to raise the bid instead of all out war with Paramount that could push Netflix to overpay on WBD deal.

It is basically wait and see for story to unfolding.

When time is right, Netflix would ready to bluntly outbid Paramount, so Ellison wouldn't able to afford to continue the fighting.
More details on why the WarnerDiscovery board's fiduciary duty pushes them to do this (could absolutely be new news manipulation from the Ellisons as well):

"PSKY–WBD rustlings: Is the Warner Bros. Discovery board getting ready to abandon Netflix for Paramount Skydance? Or at least contemplating how the revised PSKY bid—which includes almost everything WBD has asked for—could lead to an objectively “superior” offer above $30 a share? After all, the board must clear that legal threshold before resuming its conversations with the Ellisons without triggering an allegation of tortious interference.

Wall Street is buzzing about the possibility for two reasons. First, it seems credible that WBD shareholders may be coming around to the view that PSKY’s revised bid is indeed superior. Second, Netflix appears headed for regulatory rough waters: Rumors have circulated around town that the Justice Department has opened what is known as a Section 2 investigation into Netflix, questioning its monopoly power, separate from its efforts to acquire WBD. (The D.O.J. did not respond to a request for comment over the weekend.)

Netflix has said it is unaware of any investigation beyond the standard merger review process. But this would be very different, if true. One Wall Street leader close to the deal told me yesterday, “Just so it’s clear, the Netflix deal is not happening.” Hmm.

All WBD will say at the moment is that its board, “consistent with its fiduciary duties and in consultation with its independent financial and legal advisers, will carefully review and consider” PSKY’s latest bid “in accordance with the terms of” WBD’s merger agreement with Netflix. As for a potential increase in PSKY’s $30-a-share bid? I suspect that will come, too, if and when the two parties resume negotiations. I’ve got a hunch this isn’t over."


NYT says Skydance's deadline for WarnerDiscovery to respond is February 25th:

"Warner Bros. Discovery board members are now discussing whether Paramount’s bid could lead to a superior offer, the people said. (A stipulation in the contract with Netflix allows Warner Bros. Discovery to pursue such offers.)

If Warner Bros. Discovery decides to reopen talks with Paramount, it would have to notify Netflix, according to the terms of their deal. Netflix would then have a chance to improve its own offer. Warner Bros. Discovery has until Feb. 25 to respond to Paramount’s latest proposal."


Variety says WarnerDiscovery board's looking for Ellisons to lock in a best-and-final proposal:

"A source close to the situation said the WBD board is likely focused on pushing Paramount Skydance to declare that it has reached the best and final offer stage. That would allow shareholders to make a considered choice, and it would allow WBD to push Netflix to match Paramount Skydance terms if they are deemed better than the existing agreement."


Deadline says their decision will be Tuesday as the earliest:

"Warner Bros. Discovery could reveal as early as Tuesday that it will engage with Paramount following the Ellison family’s latest offer, which included some significant concessions, Deadline has learned."


Further details on Zaslav's possible thoughts and Trump admin's fingerprints on the Netflix bid:

"According to one GOP operative with knowledge of the Trump administration position of the Netflix deal: “So far it’s going nowhere with the executive branch.”

The tenor or the regulatory pushback against the Netflix offer — just weeks before WBD shareholders are expected to vote on it — has rattled people inside WBD. Its deal savvy CEO David Zaslav launched the months-long bidding process before settling on Netflix and getting a tremendous boost in WBD’s stock. But in recent days amid the regulatory heat, he’s been looking at a plan-B.

He is said to holding out hope for Paramount – backed by the CEO David Ellison, his mega billionaire father and Oracle co founder Larry Ellison and Redbird Capital – to add a couple more dollars to their $30 a share offer, bringing to total package to above $85 billion and well surpassing anything that Netflix could offer beyond its $27.75 a share, all-cash bid that relies on the uncertain value of selling WBD’s cable properties.

Netflix will have a chance to match any Paramount bid if the deal is reopened by the board this week.

People inside the Ellison camp say as of Sunday night they have received no word from WBD on reopening the process. There is some feeling that WBD is leaking news it might just to protect itself from potential litigation — Paramount has already sued the company stating that it’s ignoring its superior offer because of a friendship between Zaslav and Sarandos.

But such a ploy to merely check the boxes is running into the reality of the regulatory mountain Netflix faces. Any review by DOJ antitrust would take six months and maybe longer now that the agency’s chief Gail Slater resigned amid pressure inside the White House.

If the DOJ rejects the deal and Netflix litigates to get its approval that could take another year of uncertainty."

 
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I'm guessing the odds are now stacked against Netflex currently?
 
I'm guessing the odds are now stacked against Netflex currently?
Possibly and Netflix could still even match or increase their bid but there also bears a risk for the Ellisons here: if the door's open for them, the board's also free to discuss any offers from other suitors as well.

If Amazon presents a higher offer than Skydance, for example, Zaslav, Malone, and the WarnerDiscovery's board bounded by its fiduciary duty to take that into consideration as well.
 
I'm guessing the odds are now stacked against Netflex currently?
No if Netflix outbid Paramount in final term.

The outcome depends on decision from Netflix.

As for regulators, let remember about Microsoft playbook, work with oversea regulators first and if all oversea regulators approved the acquisition, it would be tough game for DOJ to reject and Netflix could hire lawyers who won the Microsoft-Activision case against DOJ.
 
etflix is conscious about Paramount's hostile takeover and employed the nasty tactics, so they rather to have slower pace to raise the bid instead of all out war with Paramount that could push Netflix to overpay on WBD deal.

It is basically wait and see for story to unfolding.

When time is right, Netflix would ready to bluntly outbid Paramount, so Ellison wouldn't able to afford to continue the fighting.
When Netflix outbid their's offer, we will still be the subscribers and the disincrease quality of the service we receive. The dishonest Ellisons.
 
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"According to one GOP operative with knowledge of the Trump administration position of the Netflix deal: “So far it’s going nowhere with the executive branch.”

The tenor or the regulatory pushback against the Netflix offer — just weeks before WBD shareholders are expected to vote on it — has rattled people inside WBD."

Not a big surprise, I was expecting that.
 
More details on why the WarnerDiscovery board's fiduciary duty pushes them to do this (could absolutely be new news manipulation from the Ellisons as well):

"PSKY–WBD rustlings: Is the Warner Bros. Discovery board getting ready to abandon Netflix for Paramount Skydance? Or at least contemplating how the revised PSKY bid—which includes almost everything WBD has asked for—could lead to an objectively “superior” offer above $30 a share? After all, the board must clear that legal threshold before resuming its conversations with the Ellisons without triggering an allegation of tortious interference.

Wall Street is buzzing about the possibility for two reasons. First, it seems credible that WBD shareholders may be coming around to the view that PSKY’s revised bid is indeed superior. Second, Netflix appears headed for regulatory rough waters: Rumors have circulated around town that the Justice Department has opened what is known as a Section 2 investigation into Netflix, questioning its monopoly power, separate from its efforts to acquire WBD. (The D.O.J. did not respond to a request for comment over the weekend.)

Netflix has said it is unaware of any investigation beyond the standard merger review process. But this would be very different, if true. One Wall Street leader close to the deal told me yesterday, “Just so it’s clear, the Netflix deal is not happening.” Hmm.

All WBD will say at the moment is that its board, “consistent with its fiduciary duties and in consultation with its independent financial and legal advisers, will carefully review and consider” PSKY’s latest bid “in accordance with the terms of” WBD’s merger agreement with Netflix. As for a potential increase in PSKY’s $30-a-share bid? I suspect that will come, too, if and when the two parties resume negotiations. I’ve got a hunch this isn’t over."


NYT says Skydance's deadline for WarnerDiscovery to respond is February 25th:

"Warner Bros. Discovery board members are now discussing whether Paramount’s bid could lead to a superior offer, the people said. (A stipulation in the contract with Netflix allows Warner Bros. Discovery to pursue such offers.)

If Warner Bros. Discovery decides to reopen talks with Paramount, it would have to notify Netflix, according to the terms of their deal. Netflix would then have a chance to improve its own offer. Warner Bros. Discovery has until Feb. 25 to respond to Paramount’s latest proposal."


Variety says WarnerDiscovery board's looking for Ellisons to lock in a best-and-final proposal:

"A source close to the situation said the WBD board is likely focused on pushing Paramount Skydance to declare that it has reached the best and final offer stage. That would allow shareholders to make a considered choice, and it would allow WBD to push Netflix to match Paramount Skydance terms if they are deemed better than the existing agreement."


Deadline says their decision will be Tuesday as the earliest:

"Warner Bros. Discovery could reveal as early as Tuesday that it will engage with Paramount following the Ellison family’s latest offer, which included some significant concessions, Deadline has learned."


Further details on Zaslav's possible thoughts and Trump admin's fingerprints on the Netflix bid:

"According to one GOP operative with knowledge of the Trump administration position of the Netflix deal: “So far it’s going nowhere with the executive branch.”

The tenor or the regulatory pushback against the Netflix offer — just weeks before WBD shareholders are expected to vote on it — has rattled people inside WBD. Its deal savvy CEO David Zaslav launched the months-long bidding process before settling on Netflix and getting a tremendous boost in WBD’s stock. But in recent days amid the regulatory heat, he’s been looking at a plan-B.

He is said to holding out hope for Paramount – backed by the CEO David Ellison, his mega billionaire father and Oracle co founder Larry Ellison and Redbird Capital – to add a couple more dollars to their $30 a share offer, bringing to total package to above $85 billion and well surpassing anything that Netflix could offer beyond its $27.75 a share, all-cash bid that relies on the uncertain value of selling WBD’s cable properties.

Netflix will have a chance to match any Paramount bid if the deal is reopened by the board this week.

People inside the Ellison camp say as of Sunday night they have received no word from WBD on reopening the process. There is some feeling that WBD is leaking news it might just to protect itself from potential litigation — Paramount has already sued the company stating that it’s ignoring its superior offer because of a friendship between Zaslav and Sarandos.

But such a ploy to merely check the boxes is running into the reality of the regulatory mountain Netflix faces. Any review by DOJ antitrust would take six months and maybe longer now that the agency’s chief Gail Slater resigned amid pressure inside the White House.

If the DOJ rejects the deal and Netflix litigates to get its approval that could take another year of uncertainty."

I think if it were NBCUniversal being sold, Netflix wouldn't have this much problems with regulators
 
If Paramount (Skydance) wins, prepare to see linear channels closing in all the world. Nothing stops Paramount, they will close even popular channels (and miss channels that do actually need to close)
 
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If Paramount (Skydance) wins, prepare to see linear channels closing in all the world. Nothing stops Paramount, they will close even popular channels (and miss channels that do actually need to close)
But what about the content libraries of HBO Max, Paramount+ and (the Paramount–co-owned) SkyShowtime?
 

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