Annual State of Gaming Predictions: 2012

[Tommy Lawson]

It is time to predict what will happen in the video game industry in the next 366 days. Here is the 2011 thread, and here was my prediction for 2011:

It is going to be a rough year for Nintendo. Not only do they have to deal with a Microsoft that is going to use the "We have a huge amount of great third party games on our system" to challenge the Wii here in the U.S., IMO they are on the verge of making an error just as great as the CD/cart decision versus Sony in 1995. With the Nintendo 3DS and its likely $200 plus price point, they are now getting into iPod level pricing, which means an iPod level marketing fight from Apple. If Apple senses an opportunity to steal a giant share of Nintendo's casual gaming market, they are going to go after it. Sales of the Nintendo 3DS will be great of course, but it will not approach the old Nintendo DS records of the past 7 years.

For the first 8 months of 2011, it was a rough time for Nintendo. Consumers didn't buy Nintendo's rationale for pricing the 3DS at $249, and as a result, Nintendo finally caved and lowered the price to a more reasonable $169. Now, if sales in Japan are any indication from this Gamasutra article, the 3DS finally has momentum.

I have more predictions this time for 2012 than I did for 2011. They are:

-In an effort to blunt hype and sales for the Nintendo Wii U, at E3 2012, Microsoft announces the successor to the Xbox 360, with full backwards compatibility for 360 games, as well as fully retaining existing Gamertags and Acheivements for gamers who will make the transition from 360 to the new system. However, it will not be out in 2012. The target date for release will be November 2013, 8 years after the 360's release, and matching the November releases of the original Xbox and Xbox 360.

-Sega announces a "Sonic Generations DX" type game for the Wii U, retaining the existing 9 zones used in the 360/PS3 version, while adding 3 more based upon the Wii exclusive Nintendo games. These zones will be made available for the 360 and PS3 at some point in the future.

-Christian Whitehead, the programmer who helped make the recent port of Sonic CD across several DLC platforms, will get a request from Sega for another port: for the first time since its debut on the 32X, Knuckles Chaotix will finally see a DLC release as the successor to the Sonic CD port.

-In 2012, both Final Fantasy and Mega Man will be turning 25 in December. Square Enix will try incredibly hard to release Final Fantasy Versus XIII in December 2012 for Japan, as the 25th Anniversary Final Fantasy game. Similar to what happened to Final Fantasy XIII, Microsoft announces a same day release of Versus XIII for the Xbox 360 at E3 2012. The game will go on sale in North America in early 2013. A new Final Fantasy VII game or project will also be announced around the 25th anniversary. As for Mega Man, he does not get as big a birthday celebration as what Sonic got in 2011, as Mega Man's 25th anniversary passes on December 17 without a new Mega Man game released.

 

[Scrappy-Fan92]

I predict a sequel to Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure in this new year. Also, Little Big Planet 3 will be announced.

 

[Peter Paltridge]

The Tomb Raider game will be released in the fall, and start an inescapable "moaning noises" meme.

At E3, Nintendo will announce at least five must-have killer apps for the Wii U, all of which would make excellent launch titles. The Wii U launches with "Wii U Sports" and nearly all of them are delayed into 2013.

"Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch" is the cult hit of the year, the kind that every nerd constantly plugs and promotes in every area of the internet where generic shooters are discussed. Sales start out sluggish, but pick up just in time for it to go out of stock forever. Unwrapped copies become worth $200 or more.

 

[Daxdiv]

Looking back I did get a lot of my things wrong. The only thing I would say was right was maybe seeing some refreshes since Super Mario 3D Land felt like a refresh to the series 2D platforming.

Well let's take a crack at what 2012 can offer

- PS Vita will take about 9 months or so to get a killer app game that isn't a re-release of another game already on the PS3. Took the 3DS to get that right, along with every other system so this is a fair prediction to make.

- Valve will announce a new game at E3. Not holding my breath for Half Life 3, Episode 3, Portal 3 or a Left 4 Dead 3. Highly doubt it's going to be a Team Fortress 3 since TF2 still thriving. I'm expecting a new property from them.

- I expect Dota 2 to go Free to Play after the beta finishes up.

- WiiU will probably start off shaky with it's launch line-up. I'm thinking more like GCN awkwardness since that launch was pretty weak looking back, but still stronger than Nintendo 64's. Remember Super Mario 64 and Pilotwings 64 being the launch titles?

- Microsoft will announce the development of a new Xbox system during E3.

- Atlus hints at a Persona 5 that will be on the PS3 and Xbox 360.

 

[GWOtaku]

Mass Effect 3 will be generally accepted as Game of the Year.

Bioware will officially announce Dragon Age 3.

Final Fantasy 13-2 will do about as well in the U.S. as its predecessor.

The WiiU will be out in time for the holiday season. After a shaky 2011, Nintendo's stock will rebound this year.

The Playstation Vita will not outsell the 3DS.

Everybody will have a better E3 this year because, quite frankly, 2011's conference was just that lackluster.

 

[Takao]

The Playstation Vita will not outsell the 3DS.

That's a very safe prediction, lol.

 

[Scrappy-Fan92]

Another hopeful prediction.... Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped is remade on the 3DS.

 

[Takao]

Another hopeful prediction.... Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped is remade on the 3DS.

That's a very odd prediction...

Also, I'm pretty certain Sony actually owns the code for the PS1 Crash games. They don't own the Crash character, but I do believe they own the code which would make a remake odd.

 

[Peter Paltridge]

By the end of '12, Nintendo will announce a 3DS Lite, but it won't have a second stick. Everyone will be enraged at them, and they will honestly have no clue why.

 

[Scrappy-Fan92]

That's a very odd prediction...

Also, I'm pretty certain Sony actually owns the code for the PS1 Crash games. They don't own the Crash character, but I do believe they own the code which would make a remake odd.

Fine, the PS Vita then.

Also, I randomly predict a remake of Spyro: Year of the Dragon in time for the actual Year of the Dragon.

 

[PC!]

Fine, the PS Vita then.

Also, I randomly predict a remake of Spyro: Year of the Dragon in time for the actual Year of the Dragon.

Why would they remake the third games in those series instead of starting with the first?

 

[Scrappy-Fan92]

Why would they remake the third games in those series instead of starting with the first?

Just because it's the Year of the Dragon, but my nostalgia platformer-loving self wouldn't mind a remade trilogy of Crash or Spyro.

 

[Kryten]

I predict that Activision will announce a new game in the Call of Duty series... and it will be realeased in... November.

Mind-taking. OooooOOOOOoooo.

 

[TheGunheart]

I predict Max Payne 3 will do poorly on account of being released on the same day as Mass Effect 3. A sequel to a best-selling, recent franchise up against a very late sequel that alienates fans of the original? Not much of a contest.

 

[Pepperidge]

I predict that The Last Guardian will finally be released and, while it probably won't be a bad game, it will fail to live up to expectations. People will quickly realize that the game's extremely long development period likely had more to do with creative strife between Ueda and SCEA than extensive quality control.

Christian Whitehead, the programmer who helped make the recent port of Sonic CD across several DLC platforms, will get a request from Sega for another port: for the first time since its debut on the 32X, Knuckles Chaotix will finally see a DLC release as the successor to the Sonic CD port.

That'd be cool, but he'd have to include some kind of optional "enhanced" version to really interest me. Chaotix would need new goals or easter eggs, like hidden Metal Sonic projectors, to get me to actually want to slog through it all again. Not to mention some kind of incentive to finish all of the Special Stages. I'd rather see some kind of official release for Tiddles' "Sonic 3 Complete."

 

[Scrappy-Fan92]

I predict that Activision will announce a new game in the Call of Duty series... and it will be realeased in... November.

Mind-taking. OooooOOOOOoooo.

I also predict it will have great sales and critical acclaim.

 

[Wonderwall]

I predict that The Last Guardian will finally be released and, while it probably won't be a bad game, it will fail to live up to expectations. People will quickly realize that the game's extremely long development period likely had more to do with creative strife between Ueda and SCEA than extensive quality control.

It either releases this year or probably doesn't release at all, that's my prediction for it.

I'm over that game, technically I was never really into it really but this is getting ridiculous. It's been 3 years now and all they ever showed was the same footage and since last year there have been red flags all over. No new info or trailers or screens, the no shows at the big game conferences like E3, Ueda and another producer leaving Sony, the false alarm of the game being shelved permanently( gotta wonder how false that really was ), and still no timetable even for this year. It's not looking good at all for this game.

And I don't know Vita at some point gets a price drop in time for holidays but it still won't move much numbers during said time.

 

[Chaos Yoshi Mage]

I also predict it will have great sales and critical acclaim.

And yet it will be exactly the same as the other more recent entries...

 

[Checkerboard]

My predictions for gaming in 2012:

- New information on Half-Life 2: Episode 3 or Half-Life 3 will be revealed by Valve.
- New information on Doom 4 will be revealed by id Software.
- New information on The Last Of Us will be revealed by Naughty Dog.
- A new Mirror's Edge game will be announced.
- A new God of War game will be announced.
- A new Legacy of Kain game will be announced.
- A new Spyro The Dragon game will be announced.
- A new Crash Bandicoot game will be announced.
- A new Xbox console will be either announced or at least officially confirmed.
- Oddworld: Munch's Oddysee HD will be released on the PSN in early fall.
- GTA 3 and GTA: Vice City will be released on the PSN in the first half of the year.
- Diablo III will be released around March/April.
- At least 2 new firmware updates will be released for the PS3.

I'm pretty confident about these predictions and pretty sure they will come true. This should be an interesting year imho